Saturday, 27 December 2014
Big Questions Answers . . . Will 2015 be the End of the World.
Interestingly so far, as we approach the end of 2014 no one has mentioned the End of the World. This is unusual as most years we are told that next year is going to be it (the End of the World). I suspect folk are keeping their heads down about predicting this because in recent years there have been several times where it has not actually happened and there is nothing quite as humiliating as everyone looking at you the next day like you are a complete idiot followed by anger as it dawns on them that spending their life saving on a pet dolphin and a night in a posh hotel in Blackpool was a bad idea.
So having subdued the crackpot element of the End of the World prediction game we can look at the possibilities with logic and a fair amount of rationality. You see one thing we know we can’t say is . . . . The World will definitely not End in 2015 . . . . So having established it might End we need to look at the possibilities and assess the risks.
1 Well it has been said that there is a meteor due in 2015 that is rather large and may hit Earth . . . . We can see this as a high risk possibility so 50%
2 We know that the Super Volcano in North America will at some point erupt, it is said by scientists that a Super Volcano is overdue, so although the
one is not in theory
due to go bang it is a possibility and so is a known high risk maybe 25% Yellowstone
3 A complete failure of all electronic devices due to a huge solar flare. This may not be the End of the World but it would bring the End of the World as we know it. A solar flare large enough to cause this would be rare but there is concern in science that the risk it may occur is increasing. So let’s say 15%
4 A terrible epidemic with no known cure will rapidly spread through the world’s population and reduce numbers to a level where our lifestyle is unsustainable and those left fight over the last tins of beans. . . . The risk is increasing, antibiotics are not what they were and human travel makes it likely that once something highly contagious got out of control it would be every man for himself . . . risk maybe 5%
5 An as yet unknown force or series of events that will result in the End of the World is always a possibility and there are lots of them but in most cases unlikely so let’s say overall 4%
6 Aliens OK aliens are to many a very remote possibility, but we all watch films and if there is one thing we know, it is they are out to take over the planet so that would be the end for us. But lots of folk say Aliens are rubbish so we will put the risk at 1%
7 Finally there are folk who are convinced the End of the World will be Zombies. Yes I know it is very unlikely and people say these are mad folk with loony ideas, but just in case I think we can assess the risk at a very low 0.1% (even the strangest theories can sometimes occur.
Now each of these risks is independent of the other so the overall risk that one of them may occur is 50+25+15+5+4+1+0.1 which equals 100.1%
In other words using good scientific principles rather than some crackpot idea we can say with some certainty that the risk that the End of the World will occur in 2015 is 100.1%