Friday, 30 January 2015
Can we beat the Laws of Probability. . . . . The Big Question.
Here we are again at the very edge of yet another Big Question one that folk often asked in many a scientific research establishment or the great corridors of the
or even the slightly dark and dodgy looking bookie just off the high street. You know the one with the nondescript window and fading sign. What they all want to know is . . . . Can we beat the Laws of Probability. . . . . Yes folk have been working on this since the beginning of time and the answer is complex to say the least. worlds Universities
The simple answer would be. . . Yes and No but not always . . . But that is not the sort of answer you have come here to read about is it. . . . But if it is well mmmmmm that’s it then you can go now and do exciting stuff. . . . . . . .
Well we all know the principle, toss a coin into the air insuring it spins and the Laws of Probability will state that the likelihood it will land either heads up or tails up proportionally will be just under 50/50. It is just under 50/50 because the Laws of Probability state there is a very small possibility it could land on its edge. Do this four times in a row and the probability of getting the sequence right is (4*4*2) + (4*2) +2 plus the unknown element of the coin landing on its edge, something that is unlikely but possible. (OK I have done this maths in my head so if I’m wrong YA SUCKS BOO)
Now turn this into a horse race where there are a huge number of significantly substantial variables which affect the result and it is possible to see why bookies are well off and gamblers are poor. But of course the Law of probabilities can be applied to many highly important aspects of Science not the least of which involves two rain drops running down the window of a Nuclear Research Laboratory where the scientists have to calculate the angle of the wind and the pattern of the other drops of rain on the window. Remember each rain drop will collect more rain as it descends. And therefore Science will tell us that the drop nearest the centre of the window will be the 5 to 1 odds on favourite to win the race. Allowing Professor Clarke to recover his losses from his impetuous bet in the snail race along the reactor floor, after his foolish bet on the larger British Garden Snail. It is a common fact that its larger foot would make it susceptible to increased heat from the reactor. Had Professor Clarke applied the Laws of Probability to the snail race correctly he would have know this and not lost 87p betting on the nose. The snail has since became a superhero due to unforeseen and highly improbable side effects worked out to be 119,5555,321 to 1 making the research establishments tea lady a very rich woman. She never did understand the Laws of Probability, but likes to read Marvel comics.
So can we beat the Laws of Probability, well the answer we can now see is clearly . . . . .
Yes and No but not always . . . . . . . . . . DAMN.