Can we beat the Laws of Probability. . . . . The Big Question.

Here we are again at the very edge of yet another Big Question one that folk often asked in many a scientific research establishment or the great corridors of the worlds Universities or even the slightly dark and dodgy looking bookie just off the high street. You know the one with the nondescript window and fading sign. What they all want to know is . . . . Can we beat the Laws of Probability. . . . . Yes folk have been working on this since the beginning of time and the answer is complex to say the least.

The simple answer would be. . . Yes and No but not always . . .  But that is not the sort of answer you have come here to read about is it. . . .  But if it is well mmmmmm that’s it then you can go now and do exciting stuff. . . . . . .  .

Well we all know the principle, toss a coin into the air insuring it spins and the Laws of Probability will state that the likelihood it will land either heads up or tails up proportionally will be just under 50/50.  It is just under 50/50 because the Laws of Probability state there is a very small possibility it could land on its edge. Do this four times in a row and the probability of getting the sequence right is (4*4*2) + (4*2) +2 plus the unknown element of the coin landing on its edge, something that is unlikely but possible. (OK I have done this maths in my head so if I’m wrong YA SUCKS BOO)

Now turn this into a horse race where there are a huge number of significantly substantial variables which affect the result and it is possible to see why bookies are well off and gamblers are poor.  But of course the Law of probabilities can be applied to many highly important aspects of Science not the least of which involves two rain drops running down the window of a Nuclear Research Laboratory where the scientists have to calculate the angle of the wind and the pattern of the other drops of rain on the window. Remember each rain drop will collect more rain as it descends.   And therefore Science will tell us that the drop nearest the centre of the window will be the 5 to 1 odds on favourite to win the race. Allowing Professor Clarke to recover his losses from his impetuous bet in the snail race along the reactor floor, after his foolish bet on the larger British Garden Snail.  It is a common fact that its larger foot would make it susceptible to increased heat from the reactor. Had Professor Clarke applied the Laws of Probability to the snail race correctly he would have know this and not lost 87p betting on the nose.  The snail has since became a superhero due to unforeseen and highly improbable side effects worked out to be 119,5555,321 to 1 making the research establishments tea lady a very rich woman.  She never did understand the Laws of Probability, but likes to read Marvel comics.         

So can we beat the Laws of Probability, well the answer we can now see is clearly . . . . .

Yes and No but not always . . . . . . . . . . DAMN.

Lunar Molecular Astro-Solar Oscillation and an orange slug

One more week at school after today so we are sort of chilling doing easy stuff so today we discussed Lunar Molecular Astro-Solar Oscillation. I am sure it was the physics teachers fault; all I said was I have got my telescope back from Miss E who gave up looking into space when she realized all the boys on the Astronomy class that meets after school in the dark of evening spend all night looking into space.  It was very chilled and the whole class had to agree that afterwards not one of us had a clue what the teacher was talking about. But looking knowledgeable and nodding in a knowledgeable way, going AH and pretending to take notes has seen most of the class successfully get through many subjects. Dad says this skill is something very important because with this skill we could all become politicians or bankers.   

Today has also involved the colour orange firstly we discovered a rather interesting orange slug, none of us remember seeing an orange slug before so it was quite interesting. The dog thought it might be clockwork; he said it seemed very possible that it was a Clockwork Orange Slug before falling about in Hysterics. Anyway it turns out that this slug is just the right colour for the music room. It’s called a music room because it sounds posh and will end up with all the music stuff in so not really posh more practical. So we went off to get paint the same colour as the slug.... This seemed simple enough but not when you have to deal with shop assistants who are afraid of slugs and shop managers who insist that slugs are banned from the shop. Why would anyone ban a slug from a DIY store, OK they are not going to spend a lot, but on the other hand they are quiet and courteous and have never been known to steal DIY equipment. OK if it was a greengrocer then yes they have been known to nibble the odd lettuce without paying.

In the end we managed to get the paint by sticking the slug on the outside of the window, the dog very kindly licking the window clean afterwards, Yes slugs are a bit slimy (very slimy) but he is back home now, well next door as it happens, dad throw him over the stream saying the grass is greener on the other side to the slug who foolishly believed him. Mum said the slug was an IDIOT. 

My Blog in Dynamic View again